Thursday, August 11, 2016

6. MY THEORY OF FIFTHS - T80

TRANSOM #80 : MY THEORY OF FIFTHS : Electoral politics being what it is, this gets a little complicated, but hear me out. Effectively, after all the hooting and hollering, the reality is that the popular vote, the actual numbers, count for very little. A candidate can get more 'votes' yet still lose the 'election' because they are the wrong votes, not the Electoral College votes which are the actual 'political' votes needed. That being as it may, which leads a bias towards Clinton to begin with, there is a very conceivable strategy that could be at work here as, if done smartly, by Trump, to win Trump, the election. It may very well be his 'strategy' here, early on, to alienate and break the Republican base, after walking off, of course, to their chagrin, with their party. He eventually crosses one too many lines. The Republicans finally get disgusted enough. They repudiate him, cut his candidacy loose, and put up, or plant, an alternate candidate, by them, their own guy. Trump, no matter what, has a very strong, vocal, and unforgiving (and committed) base. They will vote for HIM, regardless. (That's one-fifth). The new 'Republican' party candidate gets his or her basic contingent of leftover Republican, never Clinton!, votes. (That's two-fifths). The Democrat/Clinton stalwarts will vote for her, no matter the rest. (That's three-fifths). The Indies, fudge around voting for candidates of their own (that's four-fifths). And then, the 'disgusteds' - alienated, angry, non-voters, distant, unwholesome (- that's five-fifths), they start trickling back. Surprise is, Trump's affrontery and bombast can draw some of them back in; militants, anarchists, fanatics and right-wing extremists. Whoever can get to own the fifth-fifth contingent can squeak in. At least I can see it happpening - and in my estimation it's why Trump wishes to cause outrage enough to BE dumped. He can pick up the pieces, regardless, and come in at 35-38% and get it, IF they are the right votes and IF he can build on that, even just a little. Weirder things have happened. Less an uprising or an outright public revolt - by the sort whom Trump can lift up, the real American Sluggo, the unwashed and underrepresented - they can be placated by him at the ballot box. All the other panty-waists - Bill Clinton, Barack Obama - who's always been nothing but a panty-waist anyway - and Hillary Clinton, who's a panty-waist trying to claim she's not, can fall by the wayside with their faces all pinched, claiming fraud, but in a losing cause. He can win by just continuing to be himself. The more candidates there are, the fewer votes he actually needs, on a downward trajectory. gar

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